☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆

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Joined 5 years ago
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Cake day: January 18th, 2020

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  • There’s zero chance of that happening. The US has no credibility at this point due to its growing political volatility. Any deal Trump makes has a 4 year horizon tops, because the next admin can just reverse it the way Trump reversed Biden’s policy on Ukraine. There’s also nothing the US can offer Russia given that Russian economy has already adjusted to the sanctions and it’s actually growing faster than it did before the war. If being cut off from the west economically results in minimal pressure that in turn means that being integrated back will have minimal benefit.

    On the other hand, China has a stable political system and is able to make long term commitments. China and Russia also have many common interests and their economies are complimentary. Russia has a lot of natural resources and China has a massive industry that needs them. It’s a similar relationship to the one US and Canada have. Russia has shown that they are able to do long term planning, and they can see that their interests are much better served by an alliance with China than the US.

    What I expect will actually happen is that it’s the alliance between the US and Europe that’s going to break apart as a result. We can already see the start of the break up happening, and it’s obviously in Russian interest to encourage this. So, I fully expect that the Russians will continue normalizing the relations with the US in order to drive a wedge between them and Europe.

    Ben Norton did a pretty good take on the situation incidentally https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRJIymzuRGU