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Cake day: June 17th, 2023

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  • In fairness, the only thing many people will lack is water. It’s not an exclusive stash, but in addition to what’s in your cupboards.

    You can get 10L or 25L quite cheaply. 1 should do per person, maybe with an extra for cooking. Or just grab some big bottles of water.

    A hand cranked flashlight, candles and lighter are all a must anyhow, for a power cut. It might also be worth having a cheap camping stove tucked away.

    Food wise. It’s just a big bag of pasta or rice, along with some cans/jars to make it pleasant to eat. Throw in some hiking snack bars and you’re sorted.




  • The complication is the double jump.

    In the early days of COVID, there were 2 strains spreading. One of those fizzled out and disappeared after a few weeks. Genetically, they seemed to be independent jumps. A single mistake wouldn’t account for this.

    It’s also worth noting that the first known infected all spent time in Wuhan wildlife market. They got fairly good tracking from mobile phones, even if the direct evidence was destroyed by the containment/cleaning effort.

    Basically, the surrounding evidence doesn’t fit an accidental leak (2 jumps). It doesn’t really fit an intentional release (very geographically focused). It is consistent with it jumping from a sustained infection pool in the market. (Multiple jumps from the same small area at different times).


  • The Simpson’s Paradox also comes into play here.

    It is perfectly possible for 1 group to be (apparently) discriminated in the bulk data, while the reverse is happening in individual data. E.g. a university showing a male bias overall, yet each department shows neutral, or even a female bias.

    This makes bulk patterns particularly troublesome to work with. Men and women want different things from work. Men are disproportionately discouraged from having a work life balance, while it’s far more acceptable for women to not maximise their earning potential.